# Opinion Markets \[Coming Soon]

Opinion markets are a new format on Melee that combine the viral energy of meme coins with the satisfying resolution of prediction markets. Instead of settling to an external event (like a sports score or election result), these markets resolve algorithmically based on the opinions of participants themselves.

This makes them perfect for fast-moving, controversial, or cultural questions like:

* *100 men vs. 1 gorilla*
* *Which K-Pop group is the best?*
* *What religion is the best?*
* *Who’s the most overrated politician?*

**How They Work**

1. **Market** **Creation**
   * A creator launches a topic with 2–32 outcomes.
   * Each outcome gets its own bonding curve, just like a standard Melee market.
2. **Speculation**
   * Users buy shares in their chosen outcome.
   * Early conviction is rewarded: cheaper shares on the bonding curve mean higher upside if you’re right.
   * Positions remain private until resolution. Users can’t see how others voted or what percentages they guessed. This prevents bandwagoning and ensures honest signaling.
3. **Second-Order Question (SOQ)**
   * When buying, each user also predicts what % of the market will agree with their choice (0–100%).
   * Example: You choose “Yes” and predict that 55% of all participants will also pick “Yes.”
4. **Resolution**
   * At market close, the actual distribution of opinions is revealed.
   * Winners (the majority outcome) get their initial stake back, plus a share of losing pools.
   * Payouts are scaled by accuracy: the closer your SOQ guess was to the real percentage, the more your shares are worth.

**Accuracy Scaling (Simplified)**

* Calculate how close each SOQ guess is to the real result.
* Assign an accuracy score (closer = higher).
* Multiply initial shares by this score → *adjusted shares*.
* Pools are distributed proportionally to adjusted shares.

This means users are rewarded not just for being early and correct, but also for being precisely accurate about the crowd’s opinion.

**Why Opinion Markets Matter**

* Mimic Meme Coins → viral, uncapped upside speculation on cultural trends.
* Algorithmic Resolution → no external oracle required; markets resolve automatically.
* Privacy by Design → hidden positions prevent manipulation and gaming.
* Wisdom of the Crowd → outcomes reflect both popularity and predictive accuracy.
* Creator Engagement → anyone can spark a viral debate, monetize participation, and watch their community battle it out.

Opinion markets turn *opinions themselves* into tradeable assets, making culture liquid in real time.