Opinion Markets [Coming Soon]

Opinion markets are a new format on Melee that combine the viral energy of meme coins with the satisfying resolution of prediction markets. Instead of settling to an external event (like a sports score or election result), these markets resolve algorithmically based on the opinions of participants themselves.

This makes them perfect for fast-moving, controversial, or cultural questions like:

• 100 men vs. 1 gorilla

• Which K-Pop group is the best?

• What religion is the best?

• Who’s the most overrated politician?

How They Work

1. Market Creation

   • A creator launches a topic with 2–32 outcomes.

   • Each outcome gets its own bonding curve, just like a standard Melee market.

2. Speculation

   • Users buy shares in their chosen outcome.

   • Early conviction is rewarded: cheaper shares on the bonding curve mean higher upside if you’re right.

   • Positions remain private until resolution. Users can’t see how others voted or what percentages they guessed. This prevents bandwagoning and ensures honest signaling.

3. Second-Order Question (SOQ)

   • When buying, each user also predicts what % of the market will agree with their choice (0–100%).

   • Example: You choose “Yes” and predict that 55% of all participants will also pick “Yes.”

4. Resolution

   • At market close, the actual distribution of opinions is revealed.

   • Winners (the majority outcome) get their initial stake back, plus a share of losing pools.

   • Payouts are scaled by accuracy: the closer your SOQ guess was to the real percentage, the more your shares are worth.

Accuracy Scaling (Simplified)

• Calculate how close each SOQ guess is to the real result.

• Assign an accuracy score (closer = higher).

• Multiply initial shares by this score → adjusted shares.

• Pools are distributed proportionally to adjusted shares.

This means users are rewarded not just for being early and correct, but also for being precisely accurate about the crowd’s opinion.

Why Opinion Markets Matter

• Mimic Meme Coins → viral, uncapped upside speculation on cultural trends.

• Algorithmic Resolution → no external oracle required; markets resolve automatically.

• Privacy by Design → hidden positions prevent manipulation and gaming.

• Wisdom of the Crowd → outcomes reflect both popularity and predictive accuracy.

• Creator Engagement → anyone can spark a viral debate, monetize participation, and watch their community battle it out.

Opinion markets turn opinions themselves into tradeable assets, making culture liquid in real time.